Conjecture is a different venture studio.
We partner with leading organizations as their external engine for change: Disruption‑as‑a‑Service.
Why?
The world is going through major technological, societal, economic and geopolitical shifts.
The business model and capabilities that brought you here may not be the ones that carry you through what comes next.
Clayton Christensen’s The Innovator’s Dilemma showed how successful companies fall into structural traps: the very processes, incentives and customers that made them successful keep them from pursuing disruptive opportunities from within.
What?
So we pursue them from the outside.
You bring the domain expertise and the will to change. We bring a team that builds new ventures beyond the reach of your core business’s processes and incentives, including the ones that might one day compete with it.
How?
Our process closely follows the scientific method.
Conjecture
We propose a bold hypothesis for a new venture.
Test
We try to refute it, rigorously and against real evidence.
Build
If it survives, we build and launch it.
When the evidence fails to refute the hypothesis, we establish the venture as a spin-off and bring in full-time founders.
How we differ
Conjecture compared with a traditional venture studio.
- Expertise
Traditional venture studio
Starts without domain expertise.
Conjecture
The industry partnership embeds domain experts from day one.
- Incentives
Traditional venture studio
Billed hours and margins reward longer projects.
Conjecture
Equity first and billed at cost, so we keep projects as short as possible.
- Speed
Traditional venture studio
Slows down after the initial phase, while founders and teams are hired.
Conjecture
Our core team builds from day one. No scarce cycles are lost to hiring.
- Focus
Traditional venture studio
Flies founders to San Francisco for weeks of ecosystem immersion.
Conjecture
We start building immediately and stay focused on the venture.
- Size
Traditional venture studio
Large teams and overheads that only pay off with large outcomes.
Conjecture
Small and nimble, so we can commit to high-conviction partnerships that would not be economical for a larger studio.